You're forgetting Tohoku...
Gonna try something. It evolves as I'm typing, so I'm not sure who's gonna win yet...
Yes Liberty has the most agile ship and nice battlehips, but the very agile ship can't mount torps. the one able lib fighter wich can mount torps is not really one of the best firghters imho. Although it has 5 guns and a turret. Still, I don't think it will beat a Dragon or a Valk.
on the other hand, Rheinland has the corsairs at it's backdoor, so it won't be able to attack really heavy. They'd probably concour Sigma 13 and some Omega systems, but hold it there.
Kusari has the Blood Dragons to worry about and the GC. Also they have the Outcasts at their backdoor. They'll take some Tau's.
Brettonia has the Corsairs, Mollies and the GreenPeace-in-space faction (obviously forgot the name). Also try to take some Tau systems and Omega's.
Liberty being trapped in the middle, will be crushed and the vacuüm (
) left behind, must be filled.
If the houses fill that gap, the Criminals; Outcasts, Corsairs and Blood Draggons will try to attack the houses from behind.
If the Houses do not fill the gap, Outcasts will (imho) take it over, together with Lib. Rogues and Hackers.
Rheinland will attack GMG.
GMG will be backed up by Kusari.
Brettonia will wait untill the clash between Rheinland and Kusari is finished and then take over a few Tau and Omega systems and regroup.
Corsairs will attack what's left of Rheinland like they've been planning and will be at the Bretonia doorsteps.
Dragons will attack what's left of Kusari and will also be at the Brettonia doorsteps. They will encounter Outcasts there for sure.
Bretionia will be caught between Corsairs and Outcasts. But I think they will hold on because they still have most of there fleet.
That's the final stand I think.
Bretonia gained a few systems 1 or 2 Tau's and 1 or 2 Omega's.
Outcasts will have Liberty and a Tau system.
Dragons have 1 or 2 Kusar systems.
Kusari will have 1 or two systems left. Probably New Tokyo and Shik*ku.
Rheinland has Sigma 13 and most of it's systems.
Corsairs have Dresden (Or hessians), Stuttgard and a few Omega's and maybe a Sigma system.
In the end I don't think a deadend system like Alaska is gonna save you.
Well, nice evolving eh?
Just some thoughts. Fire away.