lol i just done watching the same show

As a short summary: the Drake Equation is a formula combining several factors to estimate how many intelligent communicating civilisations are in our galaxy.
You can play with parameters of probability and the factors here .

Off course this is an interesting speculation - and though I am sceptical I think it is probable that there is some life somewhere else in our Galaxy. Hopefully even intelligent life unlike on Earth .

But:
there is a parameter that lets puff the idea of "communicating" like a ... soap bubble. In e=mc2 c is the "Speed of light". This parameter is not a theory but a fact. So how should communication work with a intelligent, communicating society 3'000 light years away ?
Off course this question has been asked many times before. The "Believers" have different pattern of answers:
- tachyon - there are physics beyond the light speed barrier
- anti matter - there is a world beyond the knoen physical galaxies
- telepathy - direct non-physical communication from brain to brain

(Don't blame me on the details, just summing up roughly.)

All those patterns for a theory have one thing in common: Humanity doesn't know that technology now. And it is for the least unsure if we will know it as a technology in the near future. (And look at the average values in the Drake Equation: their default value for "the planet's life during which the communicating civilizations survives" is 10'000 years. Yeahh. lol.

On a sideline: Do you believe humanity could survive as a communicating civilization another 9950 years ?

back to topic - and back to facts:
the probability that existing forms of inelligent life could communicate within a galaxy is extremely small. With substantial rate of probability for intelligent lifeforms MY formula (off course this is pure speculation too) only gives 0.02 % of probability that there is another intelligent and communicating species in our galaxy. Now out there somewhere, they just must have the same rhythm of civilization.

If they have 100%, we remain at 0.02 % probability of contact. But maybe their communicating phase ended at the times of Hiob ??? Or will begin in 25'000'000 years ?

If you have read all this then you might understand why I think the Drake Equation is a nice toy for an interesting debate of some friends round a table with a bottle of wine (or two). But it is not suitable for a scientific debate.

EDIT: Damn [ - brackets

Edited by - zazie on 10/12/2005 12:06:37 AM

Edited by - zazie on 10/12/2005 12:09:51 AM

ok; i haven't heard about the drake equation; and i'm to lazy to look for it...


buuuut to contact ADVANCED life, we are not going to contact them with smoke signals (the cosmic equivlent anyway) when they are chatting Instantly and we are only at the speed of light! HOW many light years to the next solar system?! AND that's if the next one has advanced life. They are going to come to us; and unless we become like FL; that ain't going to change!

yea I dont think we will stumble onto a communications either, so that is why I feel the equation should be refined so when we send probes it will be to systems that are very likely to have life on one or more of its planets. And yes the drake equation was never ment to be for serious scientific disgussion but more as a publisity tool to gain support and funds from the government and other sources.

well it looks like SETI will not answer my e-mail, althou I cant say that I am surprised, I am jaded enough to understand their not answering my question But I am disapointed. So maybe all of you can help me.


Here is what I have so far:
IntL= S4b divided by P dvided by SO divided by R divided by OGG

IntL= inteligent life
S4b= stars over 4 billion years old, this is how long it would take for a planetary system to stableise enough to harbor life.
P= %of stars with planets
SO= % of planets with stable orbits, some of the stars that we know to have a super gas giant ( the only kind of planet we can so far detect) have them in very shallow orbits that would prevent any solid planets from froming in what is called the bio-ring, or were H2O can exist in liquid form.
R= % of stable planets that are solid, even thou life may exist under the ice on Europa the radiation from a gas giant would be to dangerious for complex life to exist long enough to develop our level of intelligence. Of cource I could be wrong
OOG= % of stable planets that are outer gas giants, haveing gas giants outside the orbits of solid planets helps keep collisions with life destroying asteroids to a minimum.

So that is what I have almost locked down, some other facts that I think are relivent but not to sure were they fit in are as follows:

A planetary core that has a strong enough magnetic field to divert the worst of the stars radiation but not too strong as to inhibit life on the planet.As well as to have a strong enough gravity to keep whatever atmosphere on the planet.
That there be a large variety of organtic life so there would be a greater chance of one of them developing intelligence as well as creating and maintaining a atmosphere capable of substaining life.
That the area around the solid planets be relitively clear of asteroids and comets and dust clouds so life has a chance to develop on the planets.
that the planet have a abondence of the heavier elements so technology can be developed.


These facts are what I feel the Drake equation is lacking in. With these facts we could refine our search to more likely canidates instead of blindly listening to the stars. After these facts there would be the usual facts of the inteligent life developing enough socal skills to develop and maintaine stable and stationary comunities were technology has a faster and better chance to develop. That the race has a desire to understand what is around it and try to effect it to better its own survival. That the race still has enough of the nomadic lifestyle in it socal makeup to intice it to expolore what is around it as well as beyond its planet.

beyond this I am alttle bit stumped, I am not too sure were the later facts would fit in ( or if they are relivent at all) or if there is smoe facts that I am missing, which I get the feeling that I am. So any help would be apreciated.





Blessed Be to all those that still dream of the flight to the stars.

quote " going to my Happy Place would do me no good it is full of blood, carnage, and destruction" :ME

"IntL= S4b DIVIDED by P DVIDED by SO DIVded by R divided by OGG"

not very much, is it?

I seriously doubt there are millions of inteligent races out there lol but that still leaves the number in the thousands

Blessed Be to all those that still dream of the flight to the stars.

quote " going to my Happy Place would do me no good it is full of blood, carnage, and destruction" :ME

We still have yet to find one intelligent race.

so very true, there is yet to be a single intelligent race found

Edited by - ... on 10/14/2005 1:49:03 PM

what about the dolphins and whales? just because a race cant build or rapidly change its environment doent mean its not intelligent.
Who knows maybe they will thank us for the fish lol.

Blessed Be to all those that still dream of the flight to the stars.

quote " going to my Happy Place would do me no good it is full of blood, carnage, and destruction" :ME

I agree wo the principles of your reflexion about core, orbit etc. to the Drake equation. But adding more factors that are closer to scientific facts will result in even lesser probability for finding intelligent and communicating civilizations in our galaxy.

That means: the more "reality" you try to put into the Drake Equation the closer you get to Zero. limes 0.
In other words :
High numbers as result of the Drake Equation = Science Fiction
Low numbers = Science Faction
<0.01 = Science

I am attributing this to calvin and hobbes but in probability many others have said. "The surest sign of extra terrestial intelligence is the fact we have NOT been contacted"

LOL zazie I guess when I want sci-fi in my life it is as a way to relax. not as a real life science.
You gave the best reason why I wanted a refining of the drake equation. Thanks

Blessed Be to all those that still dream of the flight to the stars.

quote " You wouldn't like my Happy Place it is full of blood, carnage, and destruction" :ME