Struck by lightning/Asteroid collision

Fri May 14, 2004 11:10 pm by sylverfysh

Was up late tonight and had a funny thought for no reason

Anyways, they say the chance of being struck by lightning is 1 out of 600,000 to 650,000. So that comes down to about a range from 1.66E-6% chance of getting hit by lightning.

Then there is the statement that there is a 1 out of 909,000 chance of Earth being struck by a ELE (Exinction Level Event) object. That's a 1.1E-6% chance.

There are on average 93 deaths and 300 injuries a year caused by lightning strikes. So if you take that 1 out of 600,000 lightning strikes are killers, that would mean then that out of every 55,800,000 million lightning strikes 93 kill someone.

Considering the fact that thunder storms happen world wide ALL the time. 55,800,000 lightning strikes is nothing compared to how many total number of lightning stikes worldwide there are a year. You can figure that out by the fact that there are 8 million a day, times 364, equals 272,000,000 stikes a year.

My point being that with the millions of tiny and large objects swirling about out there, with the chance of being hit by an ELE is only 1.5 times better than getting struck by lightning, it's only a matter of time until Earth gets whammied again, and by looking at the odds of lightning strikes, it could happen any time, today, tomorrow, whenever.

Eh, this probably doesn't even make any sense. I'm writing it at 2 am, and I'm dead tired. So I'll leave with my favorite song regarding death:

The Beer Song
"In heaven there is no beer, that's why we drink it here. And when we're gone from here, our friends will be drinking all our beer!"

Edited by - SylverFysh on 5/15/2004 12:35:09 AM

Fri May 14, 2004 11:51 pm by Krazy Scout

feh, then, what? all dead?

wake me up for the big hit, I'll brush my teeth before the world ends.....

Sat May 15, 2004 2:51 pm by arton alpha

get some sleep man!
no room for me to talk i was up till three watching "ghost ship"
anyway some steep stats but theres a chance
whats my chances right now Mmmmm. thunder storm, on a computer, connected to the internet through phone lines, and no surge protector in sight does insurence cover lighting strikes

Sat May 15, 2004 3:20 pm by Wolf_Demon

this is great and all...but all statistics are irrelevant

Sat May 15, 2004 3:40 pm by Sir Spectre

Your ELE reference sounds like you got the statistic from the movie Deep Impact. If it is, don't you know better than to trust statistics and numbers in films?

Sir S

Sat May 15, 2004 3:46 pm by H.Q. Victor

Based on my wins in the lottery, neither of these two is very likely to happen to me.

Sat May 15, 2004 3:54 pm by Eh_Steve

What will happen will happen, no use fretting over stats. It can hit or it may never hit, you never know.

Sat May 15, 2004 3:56 pm by Aceaz

Over 50% of people beleive statistics....but an asteroid would probably be better for this planets than humans are....sorry, I'm feeling very cynical today, and I am posting at about 1 AM...

Sat May 15, 2004 4:35 pm by -------

The ELE reference is an actual acronym for Extinction Level Event. There's also a reference to that term in the movie "The Core". If you don't know(unlikely), an Extinction Level Event is an event that could cause the annihilation of an entire species, namely humans. Meteor strikes happen every damn day. But there's always the possibility that a substantially large space rock could slam into our planet. If you take the size of the object, also taking into account that it loses some of it's mass while entering our atmosphere, and the velocity that it's traveling at, you could determine the amount of damage that one rock could cause. Look at the crater in Arizona. It was made by a rock that was no bigger than 30 meters. It's a relatively small piece of rock compared what's floating around in space. Now think about the damage a 6 mile wide asteroid could cause. THAT'S an Extinction Level Event. Of course, not ELE's have to be natural. A nuclear war could possibly wipe everything out on this planet, too. Maybe not in the initial explosions, but in the resulting fallout, or "nuclear winter."

"Here I am, enjoying my 2nd Amendment rights, and you people have to freak out on me."

Sat May 15, 2004 5:14 pm by Sir Spectre

@Mee, I know what the term is. I just don't think it is a real term bandied about by theorists, astronomists or scientists on any respectable scale. I've never heard it mentioned in any news item ever. And I listen to and read news all the time.

Sir S

Sat May 15, 2004 6:50 pm by Indy11

ELE is not a very scientific term. DDT and its use is an extinction level event, for example. The obliteration of the Dodo birds is an ELE. Presumably, the same for the giant moas of New Zealand when the early polynesians arrived.

Sat May 15, 2004 7:25 pm by kimk

@mee, dont tell me you missed my impact calculator linky i stuck up a while ago.

as for topic, you forgot that there's only one planet that we're concerned with. as for people, there's like 7 billion of them swarming all over the place. that increases chances of one getting hit fatally by quite a bit. whereas with asteroids.. there aren't as many flying around as there are thunderstrikes happening each and everyday. so chances of *any* planet getting hit are greatly reduced.. take into account there's only 9 (10?) of them. so that in comparison to the 7billion on earth... probability further gets reduced (in comparison).. so no.. we're not gonna get hit tomrrow or anytime soon. i think we'll see a huge chunk of rock headed towards at least a week before it slams into us.

Sat May 15, 2004 9:34 pm by -------

Ooookay, maybe I ought keep my trap shut about these things.

"Here I am, enjoying my 2nd Amendment rights, and you people have to freak out on me."

Sat May 15, 2004 9:40 pm by danclark20

@kimk

i think we'll see a huge chunk of rock headed towards at least a week before it slams into us.

actually there has been a few near misses that they have only spotted untill after it has passed us. and i cant remember the actually percentage of the sky they cover but it aint much, all cause of funding issues.

Edit: spelling

I am a addicted to Eve Online! Are you?

Edited by - danclark20 on 5/15/2004 10:41:22 PM

Sat May 15, 2004 9:46 pm by Sir Spectre

@Dan

and i cant remember the actually percentage of the sky they cover but it aint much, all cause of funding issues.

3% of the "big ass sky" is being watched according to Armageddon, a much more scientific movie.

Sir S

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