---

BRUSSELS, March 15 — Top antitrust regulators from the 15 nations in the European Union gave unanimous backing today to a draft ruling by the European Commission that officials say finds that Microsoft abused its dominance in operating software.

A European Commission spokeswoman, Amelia Torres, said after a closed-door session:

"The member states have unanimously backed the commission's draft decision." She did not elaborate.

With today's backing, the clock on the five-year-old antitrust case against Microsoft begins to run down. In less than two weeks, barring a last-minute settlement, the European Commission is expected to declare Microsoft an abusive monopolist, impose a fine of $100 million to $1 billion and order the company to make fundamental changes to the way it sells software in Europe.

Such a ruling would be a significant setback for Microsoft after it overcame its most serious legal challenge by settling a sweeping antitrust case in the United States in 2001. And it would be the defining moment in the five-year tenure of Mario Monti, Europe's top antitrust regulator, whose term ends in the fall.

Microsoft has lobbied national governments in an effort to persuade regulators to tone down the ruling of the European Commission, the year-round administrative arm of the European Union.

But Microsoft's political influence is limited in Europe. The company employs 12,000 people in Europe, the Middle East and Africa — less than a quarter of the 55,000 that General Electric employed in the European Union when it was trying to win regulatory approval of its planned acquisition of Honeywell International for $45 billion. That deal was blocked by the commission in July 2001.

"G.E. didn't manage to win over the national regulators, so I doubt Microsoft can," said Thomas Vinje, a competition and intellectual property lawyer in Brussels and a vocal critic of Microsoft. His clients include the Computer and Communications Industry Association, which has played a prominent role in antitrust cases against Microsoft on both sides of the Atlantic.

Even if Microsoft does find a sympathetic audience among the national regulators, they are highly unlikely to demand changes to the commission's proposed ruling, said Jacques Bourgeois, a longtime competition lawyer in Brussels. "In my experience, I have never seen a fundamental change to a draft ruling after one of these meetings," he said. Mr. Bourgeois has no direct involvement in the Microsoft case.

Microsoft officials declined to comment on Monday's meeting. The company has repeatedly said that it wants to reach an amicable solution with European regulators. A settlement is possible any time before the commission issues its final ruling, which could come as soon as March 24.

The greatest effect of a ruling against Microsoft would be evident in the way the company sells its music and video-playing software program Media Player. Instead of bundling the program into its Windows operating system as Microsoft does now, the European Commission is expected to demand that Microsoft sell two versions of Windows to manufacturers of personal computers — one of them with Media Player stripped out.

The commission has contended that by bundling Media Player into Windows, Microsoft is abusing the dominance of the operating system to the detriment of competitors like RealNetworks and QuickTime.

"Media Player is an integral part in Microsoft's longer-term strategy for Windows," a recent Goldman, Sachs research note said. Microsoft, it said, "may refuse to settle, electing to challenge this in court."

But a legal challenge, an appeal at the European Court of First Instance in Luxembourg, would take at least three years to conclude. In the meantime, the court may turn down a request to suspend the changes ordered by the commission until after the appeal, forcing the company to alter the way it does business in Europe.

Windows software generated sales of $3.4 billion in Western Europe in 2002, nearly 30 percent of worldwide sales, according to an estimate by a research company, the International Data Corporation. (Microsoft does not break out sales figures by region.)

Microsoft lawyers have said that any legal remedy imposed on its operations in Europe might be extended to all Windows programs in all regions, including the United States. Yet some analysts point to recent indications that Microsoft could tailor a version of its software for Europe.

Dan Kusnetzky of International Data said Microsoft recently introduced a version of Windows specifically for the Thai market.

"Microsoft may be trying to gain expertise in building a granular version of Windows ahead of the European ruling," he said. "The impact of the European ruling could be limited to Europe until the rest of the world demands something similar."

---